Poll Position
GOP State Chair Ron Eibensteiner speaks to SD 41 about the President, Pawlenty and those pesky Star Tribune polls
Another capacity crowd at Senate District 41's Full Committee meeting welcomed a bearer of good news, State Republican Chair Ron Eibensteiner. The role fits Eibensteiner well as during his tenure Republicans have made what were once unimaginable gains in all aspects of state government. Just don't tell the Star Tribune.
"They're [Star Tribune] so far to the left they think they're in the center," Eibensteiner half lamented and joked. "They hate what's happening in Minnesota." Eibensteiner's conflicts with the state's largest newspaper have been well-documented; especially his dislike for the Tribune's polling methodology that constantly gives the DFL a 14% advantage in party identification. The Star Tribune continues to stick to their polling results despite predicting a Governor Skip Humphrey, Senator Walter Mondale, and landslide victories for Al Gore and Mark Dayton.
Eibensteiner's most recent encounter, a self-proclaimed "pre-emptive strike" at the latest Star Tribune poll that had John Kerry leading by 9%, produced a typical response. "They were angry and they were shouting at me," Eibensteiner said. "Rob Davies [Star Tribune polling director] finally just hung up on me. I thought, 'I think I'm making progress'".
The Republican Party had become so upset at the Star Tribune's notable polling bias that they hired a polling firm in 2002 to monitor the many important races. The Monday before the election, the party's firm conducted an extensive poll on all races in hopes of making an accurate picture of the party's fortunes for the coming Tuesday night. With concerns about polling security, the firm went so far as to personally fly a person to Minnesota to deliver the polling results to Eibensteiner and Executive Director Corey Miltimore. Corey took the first look and turned to Ron. "This is going to be a good election night."
The results Eibensteiner and Miltimore had in their hands that Monday evening nearly mirrored the following night's outcome. So it naturally followed that in 2004, Eibensteiner and the party would trust the same polling firm that had proved so incredibly accurate despite the much-ballyhooed liberal media spin that Republican candidates were doomed in 2002. Last Friday, Eibensteiner received the latest polling numbers for Minnesota in a variety of categories. Eibensteiner delivered his numbers like bombshells.
* In the Presidential race: Bush 48% Kerry 44%
* John Kline's first reelection effort: Kline leads by 8%.
* Mark Kennedy's campaign against DFLer Patty Wetterling: Eibensteiner summed up the campaign thusly: "Mark will win by 8-9%"
* Undecideds break for Bush by 59%.
* Pawlenty's popularity is 72%, the highest ever recorded anywhere by the party's D.C. based pollster. Pawlenty's internals are even better: 94% approval among conservatives: 62% among moderates. 40% with Democrats!
If you think Ron Eibensteiner is resting on his laurels, think again. The Chair is already making plans for 2006 and electing a Republican majority in the state senate in addition to reelecting Governor Pawlenty and bringing another Republican senator to Washington. "The DFL is in denial. They don't want to accept what's been happening here. And we'll demoralize the DFL further if we carry this state for President Bush."
